Israel Update for January 2012

The official reason for the postponement was given as budgetary considerations in both Israel and the United States, with both governments paring back military spending this year, especially in the United States where the defense budget has been cut by 450 billion dollars. However media reports in Israel said the main reason for the postponement was actually Washington's concern that the joint exercise-designed to test Israel's ability to withstand a missile blitz not only from Iran, but also from heavily armed Hizbullah militia forces in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad forces in the Gaza Strip, and possibly also from Iran's closest Arab ally, Syria-might be seen as giving a green light to an Israeli military strike on Iran's nuclear programme. In announcing the joint drill in early January, the Israeli Defense Ministry maintained it was "not in response to any real world event." Still, it was clear to all that Iran's apparent determination to build nuclear bombs was the impetus behind the missile defense drill.

Dempsey In Israel

The rising tensions between the Obama administration and the Israeli government was said to be the trigger for a previously unannounced visit to Israel by the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Martin Dempsey who was appointed as the senior American military commander by the President last October. Dempsey was greeted by an official honor guard at a ceremony held at IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv on January 19th. He later met with Defense Minister Ehud Barak and with the IDF Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Benny Gantz, before meeting with PM Netanyahu.

In a statement issued after his meeting with Defense Minister Barak, the US military leader said the talks had been designed to "bolster communication between the US and Israel," which many viewed as a thinly veiled reference to America's demand that Israel notify Washington in advance of any plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites. Dempsey went on to state that the two allies "have many interests in common in the region in this very dynamic time, and the more we can continue to engage each other, the better off we'll all be." During a visit to Afghanistan one month earlier, the American military chief raised eyebrows when he stated that contingency plans are in the making for a potential US strike against Iran's nuclear programme. During an interview with CNN, Dempsey also acknowledged that there is "no guarantee" that Israeli leaders would give Washington any advance notice of an IDF military operation against Iran. One week later, the Israeli Defense Minister said the world must quickly stop Iran from reaching the point where even what he termed "a surgical military strike" could not prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons

During a subsequent meeting with Israeli President Shimon Peres, General Dempsey declared that the threat posed by Iran's nuclear ambitions is "a challenge shared by Jerusalem and Washington." He went on to say that what he termed "the deep trust" between the two allied countries "will protect our shared value of freedom." In an apparent attempt to lessen concerns that the Obama administration might work to thwart any Israeli government decision to bomb Iran's nuclear sites, he added "We respect you as our partner in the fight for freedom, not only in this region, but also in the entire world." President Peres was equally sanguine, telling the senior American military commander that "I'm sure we will win this battle too, in the struggle for a free and safe world for all nations. Israel and the United States stand on the same front."

Neither General Dempsey nor PM Netanyahu issued statements following their meeting in Jerusalem. However after a subsequent visit to the Yad Va Shem Holocaust Memorial in the southwest portion of Israel's contested capital city, Dempsey spoke with emotion to reporters, saying "I have studied the Holocaust and visited concentration camps in Europe. Nothing is so profound and moving as this site." He added that the United States is "committed to ensuring that such a human tragedy never happens again. God bless the victims and protect Israel."

Civil War In Syria

Israeli government and military leaders watched with increasing concern as the ten month old anti-government revolt in Syria morphed into a full blown civil war during January. During the first few months of the uprising, the mostly Sunni Muslim army remained loyal to the Assad family regime that has ruled the country for nearly four decades. The regime is mainly comprised of members of the Alowite Muslim sect, connected to the minority Shiite wing of Islam. Most Syrians are Sunni Muslims, and many have never been happy with hard line Alowite rule. However they remained fairly docile until last year, recalling that the current dictator's father, the late Hafez Al Assad, viciously crushed a Sunni Muslim rebellion in the city of Hama in 1982, killing untold thousands of Syrian civilians in the process.

Defections from the army began in earnest last August, when several mid ranking army commanders crossed over to the opposition side. This came after anti-Assad leaders formed the "Syrian National Council" as a sort of shadow government, gearing up to assume power if the Assad regime is successfully driven from power. With the growing desertions of many Syrian army commanders and foot soldiers, the Council announced the formation of the so-called "Free Syrian Army" to buttress and command the spreading street revolt against the repressive Assad regime. Council leaders proclaimed in January that they will not negotiate with the regime unless all violent government suppression ends and jailed opposition leaders and fighters are released. By the end of the month, rebel forces had taken control of many parts of Syria, including several suburbs of the capital city, Damascus, where fierce battles raged with government forces. As more innocent civilians got caught up in the fighting, additional soldiers defected to the opposition army, refusing to fire on their fellow Sunni Muslims. According to human rights and opposition sources, the death toll is nearing 10,000 in the fractured country.

The Arab League formally called upon Syrian dictator Bashar Assad to step down during January, saying he should be replaced by Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa, who previously served as foreign minister. However the regime put out a statement denouncing the call as a "flagrant interference in Syria's internal affairs." All this occurred just before the Arab League pulled its "monitors" out of the torn country, saying they could no longer help to protect the civilian population from harm. Some Israeli analysts said this step might indicate that an outside attack upon the Assad regime is in the offing, either by Arab League member states or possibly by NATO forces, as occurred last year in Libya.

The intense situation in Syria was taken to the United Nations once again in late January, soon after the French foreign minister accused the Assad regime of committing "crimes against humanity." However serious UN action was not expected since the Russian government, which holds veto power at the Security Council, continues to stand by its longtime regional Arab ally. The Russian foreign minister warned once again against "outside interference" in the intensifying internal Syrian conflict, virtually echoing the Assad regime's earlier statement quoted above. This came after additional Russian warships were sent to dock in two Syrian Mediterranean seaports, sending a concrete signal that any outside forces attempting to intervene in the growing conflict will meet Russian military resistance. Meanwhile Iran-Assad's closest regional ally-confirmed for the first time in January that its Lebanese Shiite Hizbullah puppet militia force is directly aiding the regime in its desperate struggle to remain in power, with militiamen guarding strategic government positions that were formally protected by the crumbling Syrian army.

World War Three?

Israeli military analysts are increasing warning that we might be witnessing the foundations for a third world war being laid in the unraveling Middle East. Such a conflagration would pit Iran and Syria and allied groups like Hizbullah and Hamas, actively backed by the Kremlin and supported on the sidelines by China, against NATO forces led by the United States, France and Britain, plus Sunni Arab states like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar. Israel would of course be at the centre of the conflict. However most analysts think that Russia's leaders would probably back down before any warfare escalated to the point of becoming a full blown East-West clash, knowing that the United States and its allies still possess superior forces overall, although that might change if China became an active participant on Moscow's side.

Adding to the prospect of a major regional conflict breaking out, the extremist Muslim Brotherhood Movement triumphed once again in the third round of parliamentary elections in the turbulent country of Egypt. Anti-western Muslim fundamentalists now control over two-thirds of the seats in the Egyptian Lower House, and are expected to win the presidential election scheduled for next June. The fact that they apparently intend to dissolve Cairo's peace treaty with Israel and revert to the path of jihad against the Jewish state only increases the chances for a major regional conflict, said some Israeli analysts. Meanwhile IDF leaders warned once again in January that the small Jewish state needs to be ready for all contingencies in the explosive region, where revolutions and potential conflicts are currently flaring to the north, south, east and west of Israel.

With the Middle East engulfed in crisis, it is reassuring to recall an ancient biblical prophecy that depicts the glorious future time when Israel's righteous Messiah will rule the world with justice from the holy city, Zion, bringing full peace and rest to Jerusalem and to all the earth: "Violence will not be heard again in your land, nor devastation or destruction within your borders. But you will call your walls salvation, and your gates praise." (Isaiah 60:18)