Mal Fletcher comments

Urban Expansion & Public Works

Public services will come under significant strain in 2012, not only because of the economic situation, but due to the growth of urban populations, especially in regional areas. In this regard, the UK will reflect a global trend. By 2030, more than five billion people will live in cities worldwide. Even today, 100 cities provide an estimated 30 percent of the world's economic output and 90 percent of its innovation. In time, cities will take on some of the role traditionally played by nation states, with regional transnational alliances playing a more central role in setting overall economic and social policy.

In the year ahead, in spite of financial constraints, we should expect to hear fresh demands from business and citizens' groups for forward-thinking public works programmes, to provide the infrastructure for future urban needs. Politicians will come under pressure to demonstrate that they are future-minded, having clear strategies to enhance employment, travel, housing, public services and quality of life in the light of population growth.

Plans for a new airport for London will be just the first in many high-profile schemes presented as options for future development in various cities, large and small.

Cohesion & Tribalism

Next year will likely bring a widening in social gaps in terms of wealth distribution and access to education, full-time employment and cutting-edge technology. British society is already experiencing its widest wealth gap in more than 40 years. Today, widespread use of global communications, together with levels of world travel that remain high despite economic hardship, mean that people are made more aware of the disparities than in the past.

As globalism increases, so too will tribalism of one form or another. As barriers fall to trade and cultural exchange and diversity increases, people naturally try to find others who share their values and background. Online social networking will continue to allow benevolent forms of tribalism to grow, bringing some benefits in terms of cultural identity - especially where online contact is an adjunct to physical interaction.

However, new expressions of negative tribalism will emerge in some communities as alliances form around a sense of marginalisation, frustration and, in some cases, entitlement. Access to housing may start to match unemployment as the major trigger point for unrest in poorer areas. Police and other services may be stretched as they deal with confrontational aspects of this new tribalism. Yet the public will continue to demand swift and adequate action to quell disorder. There will be continued public calls to update the court system as it deals with crimes related to feelings of social exclusion.

Anxiety

A strong, stoic form of British optimism will find expression in many parts of society throughout 2012 and there will be a greater trend toward self-reliance. However, insecurities regarding the economic landscape, combined with the generally rapid speed of change in technology, social structures and environmental issues will lead to a rise in anxiety and other forms of psychological distress.

In 2012, there will be strident calls from mental health groups for greater investment, from public and private sectors, in making counselling and therapy more readily available to all sections of society. According to two of Europe's foremost mental health groups, as many as 38 percent of Europeans suffer from some form of mental illness. I suspect that their definition of illness is a wide-ranging one, but other reports have suggested that as many as 25 percent of Britons may already suffer from some kind of irrational fear. In the US, depression is costing companies $31-$40 billion in lost production each year.

British governments, regional and national, will need to provide more mental health care under the NHS, including education on what mental health means. Government will also need to provide support for transition counselling for those who lose their jobs and need help in reinventing their personal stories.

Some corporate groups will set up mental health units of their own, to provide at least low level counselling for stressed workers (e.g. cognitive behavioural therapy). Other such units will be underwritten by business collectives and housed in industrial estates.

Family Issues